Trade concerns for Saskatchewan farmers on heels of federal election

Throughout the 2025 federal election and in the time since, tariffs and trade have been a large part of the conversation on the national stage.

Saskatchewan agricultural exports have increased more than 30 per cent over the last decade, with international sales in 2024 totalling a whopping $18.5 billion. It’s no surprise that the current uncertainty in trade and the push to expand and find international market opportunities is top of mind for interest groups across the province.

China’s 100 per cent tariffs on rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and pea imports have been a major concern for Dean Roberts, chair of the Sask Oilseeds board of directors. Formed by the amalgamation of SaskCanola and SaskFlax in 2024, Sask Oilseeds is a producer-led, levy-funded organization that supports market development and research for canola and flax in Saskatchewan.

In 2024, Saskatchewan exported $3.4 billion in oilseeds (flaxseed and canola seed) to 54 different countries – China and the United States being chief among them, says Roberts. This accounts for 41 per cent of the province’s total agri-food exports and nearly half of the $7.7 billion in Canadian canola exports. According to the Canola Council of Canada, Canadian canola has just as much impact on U.S. markets. An average of US$11.2 billion per year, including US$1.2 billion in wages is derived from the Canadian canola industry. 
 

Canola: a cash crop 
Canola is also the biggest money-making crop for producers, with 40,000 farmers across the country planting the profitable crop. Although the spring federal election caused much uncertainty, farmers had made crucial cropping decisions weeks prior and were already in the field by the time they cast their votes, says Roberts. This left him and many other farmers making “bad” decisions with regards to seeding decisions, he said, in the midst of more uncertainty than the usual weather and agricultural concerns.

“We want to see open, rules-based free trade continue,” says Roberts. “We want to see it reinstated. We want to get back to markets functioning efficiently. All of this uncertainty around different trade policies is detrimental to the industry.”

Farmers feel the crunch of what’s going on in Ottawa, Washington, and Beijing.

The United States’ exemption of canola meal and oil products from tariffs have been a balm on the market, says Roberts, but it still isn’t a great place for canola producers to be. 

Geopolitical markets can have a huge impact on what Roberts decides to grow on his 8,000-acre family farm near Kindersley. Farmers feel the crunch of what’s going on in Ottawa, Washington, and Beijing, he says.

“We really need canola to work for farmers writ large,” he explains. “Hopefully, we can get back to a place where canola continues to be as successful as it has been in the past.… Frankly, I don’t know how to make a good decision in this environment.”
 

Calls for governments to step up 
Trade is front of mind for the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS), which represents farmers in 135 municipalities, says Jeremy Welter, vice-president of the non-partisan farm policy and advocacy organization.

Governments cannot just “sit back and watch” as trade with China and the United States continues to create this market uncertainty, says Welter. There is a world of opportunities for both the federal and provincial governments to strengthen existing deals and expand who is buying Saskatchewan products.

“It comes down to the question of, what’s the role of the government? What’s the role for industry? And are both sides of that equation fulfilling the obligations to see that these new potential customers are contacted?”

This has been APAS’s call to the federal government – to initialize global partnerships and to strengthen agreements that exist, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and existing partnerships in Europe, Asia, and South America. Governments, whether provincial or federal, have the power to build these partnerships, but Welter identifies the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership (STEP) as one of the few organizations in Canada that links Saskatchewan exporters directly to the global marketplace.

More could be done at the federal level, says Welter, but Saskatchewan is lucky to have STEP, which is a member-driven, non-profit corporation,  championing the province’s exports, be it in agricultural, energy and mining, or manufacturing.

“It comes down to the question of, what’s the role of the government? What’s the role for industry? And are both sides of that equation fulfilling the obligations to see that these new potential customers are contacted?”

Farmers are price takers held to the price markets set, he explains, so when they have commodities to sell, they have to decide whether to accept the current market value or hold onto their commodities with the hope that prices will improve. The same principle applies to things such as machinery and other input costs farmers need to get their crop in the ground or their cattle fed.
 

Supporting farmers at home 
In light of the ongoing tariff discussion, Cathy Holtslander, director of research and policy for the National Farmers Union (NFU), says governments are putting too much focus on exports without factoring in how much we are importing and the money we are losing in that exchange. The NFU’s biggest election concern was how Canada can build a better path toward food sovereignty, and defending supply management and supporting local markets are part of the solution, she says.

“We need to put more into it than just the desire of Canadians to support their local farmers. We need to have actual institutional and governmental support for making that a really solid part of our economy.”

Holtslander was happy to see that all parties are supporting agriculture supply management in Canada, but that doesn’t mean that the system is not vulnerable to shrinking farm numbers and sizes, tariffs, currency exchange fluctuations, and cheaper imports.

[...] governments are putting too much focus on exports without factoring in how much we are importing and the money we are losing in that exchange.

Government programs and supports for the agricultural industry are a crucial concern regardless of which government comes into power, says Welter. APAS wants to see changes to the federal government’s Advance Payments Program, a loan guarantee program for producers to borrow up to $1 million, providing “easy access to low-cost cash advances.”

According to the program’s website, producers “repay [the] advance as [they] sell the agricultural products, with up to 18 months to fully repay the advance for most commodities (up to 24 months for cattle and bison).”

The Government of Canada covers the interest on a certain amount of the loan – currently the first $250,000 of a loan for the 2024 and 2025 programs – but this interest-free cap has flip-flopped over the years, from a high of $350,000/year during the COVID-19 years to a previous low of $100,000/year in 2019, says Welter. With the high costs of production and equipment, and those costs not going down anytime soon, APAS would like to see that interest-free portion stay at the $350,000 mark. As producers pay back the loan, the interest-free portion is the first portion to be paid off, leaving farmers holding onto the interest-bearing portion. APAS would also like to see changes to that repayment structure.

“What we’re asking is an equal repayment, a 50/50 thing,” Welter explains. “If you take equal amounts of interest-bearing and non–interest-bearing portions of the cash advance, we’re asking that when you pay it back, equal amounts be applied to both sides of the equation so you’re not carrying that interest-bearing balance for the longest period of time.”
 

Barriers to exporting 
Given that Saskatchewan is a landlocked province, producers and commodity groups rely heavily on rail and port capacity, says Welter, but also on the provincial highway system.

We are an exporting nation, he says, but there is no national infrastructure plan for the “improvements, upgrades and maintenance to our infrastructure on our countrywide scale.”

With international trade a challenge on two fronts, this is all the more reason for interprovincial barriers to come down, says CEO of the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA), Jean-Marc Nadeau.

SUMA represents over 445 cities, towns, and villages across Saskatchewan, roughly 82 per cent of the population, and the economic development and sustainability of these municipalities are always top of mind, according to Nadeau. Provincial regulations such as labelling requirements are detrimental to interprovincial trade, and Canadian premiers continue to bring this issue to the table, he says.

The Fraser Institute noted that Canada loses 4 per cent of its overall productivity due to these barriers, and research in 2016 by economist Trevor Tombe puts consumer cost increases at between 7.8 and 14.5 per cent due to inspection and labelling requirements, specifically for agricultural trade, provincial monopolies, and biased government procurement.
 

Exploring new markets
According to Nadeau, the United States has proven in the last three months how unreliable they are as a trading partner, and Saskatchewan producers have to find new markets. With shop-local and shop-Canadian movements regaining traction in light of the United States’ tariffs, getting Saskatchewan products across provincial borders should be easier, not harder, he says.

 

Mayors and councillors are the ones residents call first when there is a problem. The Carney Liberal government must recognize that and invite municipalities to the table.

“Those barriers are affecting the economic development for the businesses, for the people that are working in them, and then ultimately could potentially affect the way municipalities receive their funds, the revenue streams they have, which is primarily property taxes. Those barriers need to come down.”

Municipalities are front-line governments, says Nadeau. Mayors and councillors are the ones residents call first when there is a problem. The Carney Liberal government must recognize that and invite municipalities to the table.

“If you’re not at the table, you’re not part of those discussions, and when it impacts and affects our municipalities, that has got to change.”

The Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities (SARM) represents Saskatchewan’s 296 RMs in the province. SARM president Bill Huber called on federal candidates and policymakers to “demonstrate their understanding of rural and agriculture producers’ needs” and a commitment to “crafting policies that bridge those (urban and rural) divides.” 

“Rural Saskatchewan feeds not only the country but the world,” writes Huber in a press release outlining federal election concerns where SARM specifically called for better access to health care, infrastructure investments, agricultural support, broadband access, policing resources, and a total repeal of the carbon tax.